Election Day draws nearer, but may not decide the presidency
Ian Franks
25 Oct

There are other possibilities to consider. Official White House photo by Tia Dufour. 7 April, 2020.

“A week is a long time in politics” is as true today as when it was first said in the mid-1960s by Harold Wilson, then U.K. prime minister.

And nowhere can it be more true than in the U.S. today, with just days until both the presidential election and general election on Tuesday 3 November.

So much can happen and so many things can change in so little time that the final outcome is difficult, if not impossible, to predict with any sense of certainty. Even opinion polls, normally a fairly good indicator of voter intentions, cannot be relied upon in these volatile and turbulent times.

In December 2000, the re-election of then President George W. Bush was finalised only after a decision by the U.S. Supreme Court on 12 December.

It is entirely possible - though some might may say highly likely or even probable - that this year’s presidential election will also head for the Justices.

Trump has already poured scorn and doubt on the validity and legality of mail-in voting and, while his views have been widely de-bunked, they indicate he may be unwilling to leave the White House without a post-election fight if the results don’t go his way.

It’s the nature of such a fight that has raised concern in some quarters that it may not stop at the Supreme Court. Instead, it could escalate into an armed intervention by pro-Trump militias.

While I can see how such fears came about, to me, they cannot be realistic. Such a step would be the equivalent of a coup, and a precursor of civil war. That is almost unthinkable.

So, instead of dwelling upon what I consider to be practically impossible, let’s take a look at the way things look in some key swing - or “battleground” - states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio. Together, these eight states count for 125 electoral college (EC) votes.

President Trump on the South Lawn of the White House. Official White House photo by Andrea Hanks.

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The Guardian newspaper gives Democrat Joe Biden six of the eight states, valued at 101 EC votes, while Trump takes Iowa and Ohio, worth just 24 EC votes.

The Financial Times newspaper says Biden is ahead in all eight states and predicts a Democrat victory, with a landslide electoral college victory.

It appears, from these figures, that the presidency is for the Democrats to lose - though they may, if their voters feel so assured of success that they get complacent and stay at home.

It’s an old saying that the only poll that matters is on polling day – and that is true, whether electors cast their votes by mail, during early voting or on polling day itself. Only once all those votes have been counted in each state will the likely result from the electoral college become clear.

And that is without court action, by either side, muddying the already rough waters of the U.S. ‘democratic’ process.

If there is anything clear about this election, between militias, misinformation and strategy, it’s that there will not be true democracy until the electoral college is abolished and each vote is equal.

Until then, all anyone can do is cross their fingers.

Ian Franks is the managing editor of 50 Shades of Sun.
OPINION
Election Day draws nearer, but may not decide the presidency
Ian Franks
25 Oct

There are other possibilities to consider. Official White House photo by Tia Dufour. 7 April, 2020.

“A week is a long time in politics” is as true today as when it was first said in the mid-1960s by Harold Wilson, then U.K. prime minister.

And nowhere can it be more true than in the U.S. today, with just days until both the presidential election and general election on Tuesday 3 November.

So much can happen and so many things can change in so little time that the final outcome is difficult, if not impossible, to predict with any sense of certainty. Even opinion polls, normally a fairly good indicator of voter intentions, cannot be relied upon in these volatile and turbulent times.

In December 2000, the re-election of then President George W. Bush was finalised only after a decision by the U.S. Supreme Court on 12 December.

It is entirely possible - though some might may say highly likely or even probable - that this year’s presidential election will also head for the Justices.

Trump has already poured scorn and doubt on the validity and legality of mail-in voting and, while his views have been widely de-bunked, they indicate he may be unwilling to leave the White House without a post-election fight if the results don’t go his way.

It’s the nature of such a fight that has raised concern in some quarters that it may not stop at the Supreme Court. Instead, it could escalate into an armed intervention by pro-Trump militias.

While I can see how such fears came about, to me, they cannot be realistic. Such a step would be the equivalent of a coup, and a precursor of civil war. That is almost unthinkable.

So, instead of dwelling upon what I consider to be practically impossible, let’s take a look at the way things look in some key swing - or “battleground” - states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio. Together, these eight states count for 125 electoral college (EC) votes.

President Trump on the South Lawn of the White House. Official White House photo by Andrea Hanks.

Get The Locus sent straight to your inbox
Thanks for subscribing to The Locus!
Something went wrong. Sorry about that.

The Guardian newspaper gives Democrat Joe Biden six of the eight states, valued at 101 EC votes, while Trump takes Iowa and Ohio, worth just 24 EC votes.

The Financial Times newspaper says Biden is ahead in all eight states and predicts a Democrat victory, with a landslide electoral college victory.

It appears, from these figures, that the presidency is for the Democrats to lose - though they may, if their voters feel so assured of success that they get complacent and stay at home.

It’s an old saying that the only poll that matters is on polling day – and that is true, whether electors cast their votes by mail, during early voting or on polling day itself. Only once all those votes have been counted in each state will the likely result from the electoral college become clear.

And that is without court action, by either side, muddying the already rough waters of the U.S. ‘democratic’ process.

If there is anything clear about this election, between militias, misinformation and strategy, it’s that there will not be true democracy until the electoral college is abolished and each vote is equal.

Until then, all anyone can do is cross their fingers.

Ian Franks is the managing editor of 50 Shades of Sun.
Election Day draws nearer, but may not decide the presidency
Ian Franks
25 Oct

There are other possibilities to consider. Official White House photo by Tia Dufour. 7 April, 2020.

“A week is a long time in politics” is as true today as when it was first said in the mid-1960s by Harold Wilson, then U.K. prime minister.

And nowhere can it be more true than in the U.S. today, with just days until both the presidential election and general election on Tuesday 3 November.

So much can happen and so many things can change in so little time that the final outcome is difficult, if not impossible, to predict with any sense of certainty. Even opinion polls, normally a fairly good indicator of voter intentions, cannot be relied upon in these volatile and turbulent times.

In December 2000, the re-election of then President George W. Bush was finalised only after a decision by the U.S. Supreme Court on 12 December.

It is entirely possible - though some might may say highly likely or even probable - that this year’s presidential election will also head for the Justices.

Trump has already poured scorn and doubt on the validity and legality of mail-in voting and, while his views have been widely de-bunked, they indicate he may be unwilling to leave the White House without a post-election fight if the results don’t go his way.

It’s the nature of such a fight that has raised concern in some quarters that it may not stop at the Supreme Court. Instead, it could escalate into an armed intervention by pro-Trump militias.

While I can see how such fears came about, to me, they cannot be realistic. Such a step would be the equivalent of a coup, and a precursor of civil war. That is almost unthinkable.

So, instead of dwelling upon what I consider to be practically impossible, let’s take a look at the way things look in some key swing - or “battleground” - states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio. Together, these eight states count for 125 electoral college (EC) votes.

President Trump on the South Lawn of the White House. Official White House photo by Andrea Hanks.

The Guardian newspaper gives Democrat Joe Biden six of the eight states, valued at 101 EC votes, while Trump takes Iowa and Ohio, worth just 24 EC votes.

The Financial Times newspaper says Biden is ahead in all eight states and predicts a Democrat victory, with a landslide electoral college victory.

It appears, from these figures, that the presidency is for the Democrats to lose - though they may, if their voters feel so assured of success that they get complacent and stay at home.

It’s an old saying that the only poll that matters is on polling day – and that is true, whether electors cast their votes by mail, during early voting or on polling day itself. Only once all those votes have been counted in each state will the likely result from the electoral college become clear.

And that is without court action, by either side, muddying the already rough waters of the U.S. ‘democratic’ process.

If there is anything clear about this election, between militias, misinformation and strategy, it’s that there will not be true democracy until the electoral college is abolished and each vote is equal.

Until then, all anyone can do is cross their fingers.

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